Desk
Conspiracy
The File desk · official reports and named journals
Theories, then the documents. This desk stays up until a primary report moves. No politics.
Compiled Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Updated Wednesday, September 2, 2026
UFOs
Theory
UAP are extraterrestrial spacecraft, and the U.S. government recovered and reverse-engineered them.
AARO and NASA say they have found no evidence of extraterrestrial craft, beings, or reverse-engineered off-world tech. Many cases are still unresolved for lack of data — that is not the same as identified as ET.
ConfirmedOfficial finding: no ET craft or reverse-engineered off-world tech.
Ancient history
Theory
Atlantis was a lost high-tech civilization; aliens built the pyramids; Göbekli Tepe is leftover from a lost Ice Age high culture destroyed by a comet.
Egyptian authorities, UNESCO, and NASA identify Giza as Fourth-Dynasty royal tombs with a workers’ town. Atlantis is Plato’s dialogue, not a UNESCO site. Göbekli Tepe is Pre-Pottery Neolithic hunter-gatherers. The Younger Dryas cold interval happened; a comet as the cause is argued in the journals, not settled.
ConfirmedGiza as Fourth-Dynasty royal tombs; Göbekli Tepe dates; Younger Dryas cold interval.
DisputedAtlantis as a lost high-tech city; aliens built the pyramids; comet as the Younger Dryas cause.
Extinction this decade
Theory
A planet-killing asteroid, a Yellowstone caldera, nuclear war, or AI will cause human extinction in the next ten years.
NASA has no known civilization-class asteroid this decade (Torino 0). USGS says a Yellowstone caldera is not imminent and did not publish a 10-year odds. SIPRI counts about 12,000 warheads; New START expired February 2026; no government or National Academy page publishes a 10-year probability of nuclear war. The International AI Safety Report and U.S./UK institutes do not publish a 10-year probability that AI causes human extinction. IPCC does not publish a human-extinction probability. This desk does not invent percentages.
ConfirmedOfficial record: no known civilization-class impact; no official decade % for war, AI extinction, Yellowstone caldera, or IPCC human extinction.
NASA / JPL SentrySIPRI Yearbook 2026
| Hazard | Official 10-year figure | What they said |
|---|---|---|
| Known civilization-scale asteroid | n/a (they scan 100 years). Live: no Torino >0 | CNEOS/JPL: “There is currently no known significant threat of impact for the next hundred years or more.” Farnocchia: “for all the asteroids that we’ve discovered so far, the Torino scale is zero.” |
| Yellowstone caldera-forming eruption | n/a — no USGS decade probability | “There is no evidence that a catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is imminent, and such events are unlikely to occur in the next few centuries.” |
| Nuclear war | n/a — NAS/State/SIPRI/IAEA/UNODA do not publish a 10-year % | NAS 2023: “the study does not include performing a risk analysis.” “there is little direct evidence that can be relied on to make empirical estimates about the probability of either” nuclear war or nuclear terrorism. SIPRI January 2026 Estimate: 12,187 total, 9,745 stockpiled, 4,012 deployed; US+Russia about 83% of stockpiled. New START expired February 2026. |
| AI causing human extinction | n/a — UK IASR / AISI / NIST CAISI / labs do not publish a 10-year extinction p | IASR 2025: broad consensus current general-purpose AI lacks loss-of-control capabilities; experts disagree on likelihood “within the next several years.” Anthropic current residual catastrophic risk: Low. OpenAI “severe harm” = thousands dead / hundreds of billions — not extinction. |
| Human extinction from climate (IPCC) | n/a | IPCC AR6 SYR SPM does not publish a 10-year (or any-horizon) human-extinction probability. |
Also on this desk
Cryptids. Bigfoot as an unclassified ape; Nessie as a large unknown animal. Not a USFWS-listed species. NatureScot has no Nessie plan. Existence is Unverified.
Bermuda Triangle. NOAA: disappearances are not more frequent there than in other busy ocean. Navy/Coast Guard: no supernatural explanations.