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Monday, August 31, 2026

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Explainer · Compiled Monday, August 31, 2026

How Social Security is funded

Where the money comes from, where it goes, and what the 2026 Trustees Report says happens if Congress does not change the law.

The File desk · figures from the 2026 Trustees Report

These are the Trustees’ intermediate projections — their best estimate, with assumptions set in February 2026. They are not a promise. Depletion dates move from one annual report to the next.

In one minute

Most of the money is a payroll tax. That is a tax on wages. Workers and employers each pay 6.20 percent on pay up to $184,500 in 2026. Self-employed people pay 12.40 percent.

Almost all of it goes out as monthly checks. Retirement and survivor checks come from one account, called OASI — Old-Age and Survivors Insurance. Disability checks come from another, called DI — Disability Insurance. Together they are Social Security.

Extra money sits in a trust fund. That is a reserve of special Treasury securities. When yearly costs exceed yearly income, the reserve is drawn down.

The Trustees say OASI can pay full scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, incoming taxes would cover 78 percent of scheduled benefits. If the two funds were combined — which takes a change in law — full benefits would last until the third quarter of 2034, then 83 percent. Checks do not go to zero under current law.

Where the money comes from

By 2026 law, the OASDI tax is 6.20 percent on the worker and 6.20 percent on the employer. Of that 6.20, 5.30 goes to OASI and 0.90 goes to DI. The tax stops at the contribution and benefit base — the taxable maximum — of $184,500. At the cap, worker and employer each pay $11,439.00.

Two smaller streams add income: income tax on some Social Security benefits, and interest on the securities in the trust funds.

In 2025, OASI took in $1,248.8 billion. Payroll taxes were $1,130.7 billion, about 91 percent. Tax on benefits was $56.4 billion, about 5 percent. Interest was $61.7 billion, about 5 percent. DI income was $200.5 billion: $191.9 billion from payroll taxes (96 percent), $1.4 billion from tax on benefits, and $7.2 billion from interest.

About 184.7 million people paid Social Security payroll taxes in 2025.

OASIPayroll $1130.7bOASDI combinedPayroll $1322.6b
  • Payroll taxes
  • Tax on benefits
  • Interest
Trustees Table 5, 2025 program income, billions of dollars. Combined OASDI is OASI plus DI. Payroll taxes, tax on benefits, and interest. SSA: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

Where the money goes

At the end of 2025, 62.3 million people received OASI benefits. 8.2 million received DI benefits.

Benefits are almost the entire cost. They were 99 percent of OASI cost and 98 percent of DI cost in 2025. Administration was 0.3 percent of OASI cost and 1.6 percent of DI cost.

Combined Social Security cost exceeded income by $160.2 billion in 2025. OASI ran a $200.0 billion deficit. DI ran a $39.8 billion surplus.

The trust funds

A trust fund here is a reserve. When income exceeds cost, the extra is invested. By law, reserves must be held in interest-bearing securities backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. Today those are special non-marketable Treasury issues.

OASI and DI are legally separate. One fund cannot borrow from the other unless Congress changes the law. Trustees often still show a combined “OASDI” picture.

OASI began 2025 with $2,538.3 billion in reserves and ended with $2,338.3 billion. DI began with $183.2 billion and ended with $223.0 billion.

At the end of July 2026, SSA’s investments-held table showed $2.502 trillion invested: $2,246.3 billion in OASI and $255.8 billion in DI.

The program can pay only what it has: that year’s income plus remaining reserves. It cannot borrow.

The dates people hear about

“Depleted” does not mean the program shuts off. After reserves are gone, Social Security can still pay whatever comes in that year from taxes. Under current law, checks would be cut to the payable share. They would not go to zero.

OASI: full scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032, then 78 percent payable, declining to 62 percent by 2100. DI: full benefits through at least 2100. Combined OASDI, if the two funds were combined: full benefits until the third quarter of 2034, then 83 percent, declining to 65 percent by 2100.

Cost first exceeded non-interest income in 2010. Cost first exceeded total income, including interest, in 2021. Both dates are for OASI and for the combined picture. For 2026, the Trustees project combined OASDI cost of $1,697 billion and income of $1,493 billion.

  1. 2010

    Cost exceeds income excluding interest (OASI and combined).

  2. 2021

    Cost exceeds total income including interest (OASI and combined).

  3. 2032 Q4

    OASI reserves depleted. 78% of scheduled benefits payable.

  4. 2034 Q3

    Combined OASDI, if the two funds were combined. 83% payable.

Trustees Table 7, key dates. 2032 and 2034 are intermediate projections. After reserves are gone, continuing tax income still pays the payable share. Checks do not go to zero under current law. SSA: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

The long view

The Trustees compare cost and income to taxable payroll — the wages that are subject to the Social Security tax. The 75-year combined OASDI actuarial deficit is 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. Last year’s report put that figure at 3.82 percent.

Social Security’s annual cost — OASI and DI together — is 5.3 percent of GDP in 2026. The Trustees project a peak of about 6.9 percent in 2084.

They say long-term OASDI finances worsened mainly because they lowered the fertility assumption from 1.90 to 1.75 children per woman, lowered immigration, and expect less revenue from taxing benefits after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted July 4, 2025. That is the Trustees’ account. This page does not judge the bill.

12.016.020.0202620852100
  • Income rate
  • Cost rate
Redrawn from published Trustees Chart A figures for OASDI only, as a percent of taxable payroll. Income rate: 12.91 in 2026, 13.45 in 2100. Cost rate: 15.37 in 2026, 20.45 in 2085, 20.02 in 2100. Interest is not in the income rate. The Excel figures file on the Trustees hub returned 403; these are the rates printed in the HTML summary, not a full-year series. SSA: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

Taxable maximum, 1937–2026

The cap rose from $3,000 in 1937 to $184,500 in 2026. SSA says it usually moves with the national average wage.

$0$50k$100k$150k$185k193719802026
Contribution and benefit base, 1937–2026, from SSA’s taxable-maximum table. 1937–50 was $3,000. 2026 is $184,500. Amounts for 1937–74 and 1979–81 were set by statute; later amounts follow automatic adjustment. SSA: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html

What this page is not

This is not advice about claiming benefits. It is not a forecast of what Congress will pass. It is not Medicare.

The named Trustees on the 2026 summary are Scott Bessent, Treasury secretary and managing trustee; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Health and Human Services; Keith E. Sonderling, acting Labor secretary; and Frank J. Bisignano, Social Security commissioner. The two Public Trustee seats have been vacant since July 2015.

The Trustees write: “Lawmakers have many options for changes that would reduce or eliminate the long-term financing shortfalls. Taking action sooner rather than later will allow consideration of a broader range of solutions and provide more time to phase in changes so that the public has adequate time to prepare.” That is their statement. This page does not pick a plan.

What is still unknown or disputed

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports

    Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees · August 31, 2026

    The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 78 percent of total scheduled benefits. If the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until the third quarter of 2034. At that time, continuing combined fund income would be sufficient to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits. The two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law.

    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

  2. Source 2

    The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report

    Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary · August 31, 2026

    The 2026 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds presents the current and projected financial status of the trust funds. Tables and figure data are linked from this hub, including an Excel file of 2026 TR Figures Data. Automated fetch of the Excel file returned 403; Chart A figures used on this page are the published rates in the HTML summary.

    https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2026/

  3. Source 3

    Contribution and Benefit Base

    Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary · August 31, 2026

    For earnings in 2026, this base is $184,500. The OASDI tax rate for wages paid in 2026 is set by statute at 6.2 percent for employees and employers, each. Thus, an individual with wages equal to or larger than $184,500 would contribute $11,439.00 to the OASDI program in 2026, and his or her employer would contribute the same amount. The OASDI tax rate for self-employment income in 2026 is 12.4 percent.

    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html

  4. Source 4

    Investments held at the end of July 2026

    Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary · July 31, 2026

    Total amount invested $2,502,091,781 thousand. OASI $2,246,259,082 thousand. DI $255,832,699 thousand. The page states that today the trust funds hold only special issues, and that the most recent month for available data is July 2026.

    https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/investheld.cgi