Tropical Storm Trudy is expected to become a hurricane within a day and a major hurricane by Friday; Mexico should watch

This is a new storm. At 3 a.m. Central time Wednesday, Public Advisory Number 4 put the center near latitude 11.1 north, longitude 99.0 west: about 405 miles (650 kilometers) south of Acapulco, and about 650 miles (1,045 kilometers) southeast of Manzanillo. Top winds were near 50 mph (85 kilometers an hour), with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure was 1002 millibars. Trudy was moving west-northwest near 10 mph.

The center expects a motion between west-northwest and northwest through tonight, then a turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed on Thursday. It says rapid intensification is forecast over the next few days. Trudy is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane by Friday.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The center says people in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the storm, and that watches will likely be required later today for portions of those coasts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 kilometers) from the center.

Swells are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico late this week. The center says those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The forecast advisory, from the same hour, puts the maximum sustained winds at 45 knots and shows a peak of 115 knots at 17/0600 UTC. The discussion’s forecast table lists that peak as 130 mph. The discussion says Trudy should become a hurricane within 24 hours and reach major-hurricane strength somewhere around 48 hours.

The discussion says a satellite wind pass put the center farther west-southwest than the previous track, and that the new track is shifted west. In this forecast the center stays offshore of southwestern Mexico. It says uncertainty in the long-range track is larger than normal, because the storm is moving into an area of weaker steering. The same discussion says Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend, with an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge. Watches could be required for a portion of those areas later today.

The U.S. center tells people to consult products from their local weather office. This desk did not open Mexico’s national weather service pages.