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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Safety · Thursday, October 15, 2026

Hurricane Trudy has formed and is forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday as it nears Mexico

Added 7:28 a.m. ET, Oct. 15

The File desk · Oct 15, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC

Status

Confirmed. The position, winds, pressure, motion, rain, surf, and the lack of watches are the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s Public Advisory Number 8, issued at 3 a.m. Central time Thursday (5 a.m. Eastern, 0900 UTC). The peak of 115 knots (130 mph), and the line that tropical-storm-force winds could reach the coast as early as Saturday, are Discussion Number 8, issued at the same hour.

  • Confirmed

    At 3 a.m. Central time, Trudy’s center was near 12.9 north, 101.6 west, about 300 miles (480 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco and about 460 miles (735 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo. Top winds were near 75 mph (120 km/h). The storm was moving northwest at 9 mph. The central pressure was 989 millibars (advisory 8).

  • Confirmed

    There are no coastal watches or warnings. The center says watches will likely be required later this morning for portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico. It expects rapid strengthening, a major hurricane on Friday, and an approach to those coasts this weekend (advisory 8).

  • Confirmed

    Discussion 8 says tropical-storm-force winds could reach portions of the coast as early as Saturday. Its forecast table peaks at 115 knots, listed as 130 mph.

At 3 a.m. Central on Thursday, Hurricane Trudy was about 300 miles south-southwest of Acapulco with top winds near 75 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Rapid strengthening is forecast; the center expects a major hurricane on Friday and an approach to southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. No coastal watches or warnings yet; watches will likely be required later Thursday morning for those coasts. Swells that can kill people in the surf are expected along southwestern Mexico.

Wednesday’s story had Trudy as a tropical storm, with winds near 50 mph and the center about 405 miles south of Acapulco. By 3 a.m. Central time Thursday, Public Advisory Number 8 put the top winds near 75 mph (120 kilometers an hour), with higher gusts. That is a hurricane. The center was near latitude 12.9 north, longitude 101.6 west: about 300 miles (480 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, and about 460 miles (735 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo. The minimum central pressure was 989 millibars. Trudy was moving northwest near 9 mph (15 kilometers an hour).

A turn toward the north-northwest is expected during the next day or two, then a turn back toward the northwest this weekend. On that track, the center says, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Trudy is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The center says people in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the storm, and that watches will likely be required later this morning for portions of those coasts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 kilometers) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 kilometers).

Through the weekend, the center expects 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals around 12 inches, across Colima and Jalisco. It says that rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially along steep terrain. Along the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan, it expects 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, and says that rain may cause localized flash flooding, especially along steep terrain.

Swells are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so and to continue through the weekend. The center says those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Discussion Number 8, from the same hour, says tropical-storm-force winds could reach portions of the coast as early as Saturday, and that watches will likely be required later this morning. The discussion’s forecast table peaks at 115 knots, listed as 130 mph, at 17/0600 UTC and again at 17/1800 UTC.

The U.S. center tells people to consult products from their local weather office. This desk did not open Mexico’s national weather service pages.

What is still unknown or disputed

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 8

    National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 15, 2026

    300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026. LOCATION...12.9N 101.6W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Watches will likely be required later this morning.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml

  2. Source 2

    Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 8 (archive)

    National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 15, 2026

    300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026. ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. Trudy is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep21/ep212026.public.008.shtml

  3. Source 3

    Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 8

    National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 15, 2026

    Tropical-storm-force winds could reach portions of the coast as early as Saturday, and watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later this morning. Forecast table: 48H 17/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH, and 60H 17/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep21/ep212026.discus.008.shtml