Trudy is now a major hurricane, and Mexico has posted a hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings ahead of a close pass this weekend

Thursday’s story had Trudy with top winds near 75 mph, about 300 miles south-southwest of Acapulco. By 3 a.m. Central time Friday, Public Advisory Number 12 put the top winds near 120 mph (195 kilometers an hour), with higher gusts. That is Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which makes Trudy a major hurricane. The center was near latitude 14.2 north, longitude 102.4 west: about 250 miles (400 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco and about 355 miles (570 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo. The minimum central pressure was 956 millibars. Trudy was moving northwest near 6 mph (9 kilometers an hour).

Watches and warnings are now up. A hurricane watch covers the coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. That means hurricane conditions are possible there. A tropical storm warning covers the coast from Manzanillo south to Zihuatanejo. That means tropical-storm conditions are expected somewhere in that stretch within 36 hours. With this advisory, Mexico’s government extended the warning north from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. The center says more watches or warnings will likely be required later Friday.

Timing. Tropical-storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Friday night or early Saturday. In the watch area, tropical-storm conditions begin Saturday, and hurricane conditions are possible by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and passes near the coast Saturday night into Sunday.

Strength. More strengthening is expected through Saturday, and the center forecasts that Trudy will still be a major hurricane at its closest approach to Mexico. Some weakening is predicted later this weekend and early next week. Forecast Discussion Number 12 peaks the storm at 125 knots, listed as 145 mph, which would be Category 4. Hurricane-force winds reach up to 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the center; tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 140 miles (220 kilometers).

The track is close to the coast, and that is the hard part. The discussion says Trudy moved west unexpectedly for several hours overnight, so the forecast track shifted west, and most models keep the center offshore. But it warns that small changes in a track that runs parallel to the coast could make large differences in how severe the impacts are, and tells people to pay close attention to the watches and warnings.

Rain, surge, and surf. Through the weekend the center expects 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 12 inches, along and near the southwest coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. It says that rain may cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. Trudy’s outer bands may drop 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6, in Guerrero. Storm surge could flood the coast where winds blow onshore, with large and destructive waves. Swells are already reaching southwestern Mexico and will spread north; the center says they are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The U.S. center tells people in the area to follow their national weather service. This desk did not open Mexico’s national weather service pages.