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Monday, October 12, 2026

The File

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Safety · Monday, October 12, 2026

Hurricane Simon has weakened to a Category 3 off west-central Mexico; the threat continues

Added 8:16 a.m. ET, Oct. 12

The File desk · Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC

Status

Confirmed. Figures come from the U.S. National Hurricane Center's Advisory Number 20 and discussion 20, issued at 2 a.m. Mountain time Monday (5 a.m. Eastern, 0900 UTC), read on nhc.noaa.gov. This desk did not open Mexico's national weather service pages, and it has no Mexican damage or death counts.

  • Confirmed

    At 2 a.m. Mountain time, Simon's center was near 20.0 north, 106.3 west, about 145 miles (235 kilometers) west-northwest of Manzanillo and about 50 miles (75 kilometers) southwest of Cabo Corrientes. Top winds were near 115 mph (185 km/h), Category 3, and the central pressure was 958 millibars. The storm was drifting northwest at 5 mph (advisory 20).

  • Confirmed

    A hurricane warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marias. A hurricane watch is in effect north of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya (advisory 20).

  • Confirmed

    The center expects Simon to move inland across west-central Mexico around midweek, to remain a hurricane until then, and to weaken rapidly after it moves inland. It forecasts additional rain of 2 to 4 inches on the southwest and west-central coast, isolated additional amounts of 6 to 8 inches over parts of Jalisco early in the week and over Sinaloa mainly Wednesday and Thursday, and isolated storm totals of 30 inches possible in parts of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the east of where the center approaches land (advisory 20).

Hurricane Simon has weakened to a Category 3, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said early Monday. At 2 a.m. Mountain time the center was still offshore, about 50 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, with top winds near 115 mph. Dangerous winds and flooding rains continue along the coast of west-central Mexico. Forecasters expect the storm to move inland around midweek and to remain a hurricane until then.

Sunday's advisory had the eyewall of a Category 4 storm very near that coast, with winds near 150 mph. The center stayed offshore. By 2 a.m. Mountain time Monday, in Advisory Number 20, Simon was a Category 3, drifting northwest at 5 mph. The National Hurricane Center said dangerous winds and flooding rains were continuing along the coast.

The center was near latitude 20.0 north, longitude 106.3 west: about 145 miles (235 kilometers) west-northwest of Manzanillo, and about 50 miles (75 kilometers) southwest of Cabo Corrientes. The minimum central pressure was 958 millibars.

A hurricane warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito, and for Las Islas Marias. A hurricane watch covers the coast north of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. A warning means hurricane conditions are expected. A watch means they are possible.

Simon is expected to keep drifting northwest into early Tuesday, then turn gradually toward the northeast and move inland across west-central Mexico around midweek. Slow weakening is forecast. The center expects Simon to remain a hurricane through midweek, and says rapid weakening is likely after the storm moves inland.

More rain is forecast: an additional 2 to 4 inches across coastal parts of southwest and west-central Mexico, with isolated additional amounts of 6 to 8 inches over parts of Jalisco early in the week and over parts of Sinaloa mainly Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches are possible over parts of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. The center says that rain will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, or worsen flooding already under way, especially in steep terrain. A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land.

The U.S. center tells people in Mexico to follow products from their national meteorological service. This desk did not open those pages.

What is still unknown or disputed

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 20

    National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 12, 2026

    ...SIMON DRIFTING NORTHWEST... ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H ... Simon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep20/ep202026.public.020.shtml

  2. Source 2

    Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 20

    National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 12, 2026

    Simon continues to show signs of weakening as the eye has become filled in... Simon is still expected to rapidly weakening once the cyclone makes landfall around 72 h.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep20/ep202026.discus.020.shtml