Hurricane Simon is back up to Category 2 and drifting southwest off Mexico; hurricane watch for the Islas Marias

Tuesday’s story had Simon as a Category 1, with winds near 90 mph, a hurricane warning for the Islas Marías, and a hurricane watch on the Sinaloa coast north of Escuinapa to Bahía Tempehuaya. By 2 a.m. Mountain time Wednesday, Advisory Number 28 put the top winds near 105 mph (165 kilometers an hour). That is Category 2. The advisory’s own sentence says the winds have decreased to near 105 mph, which is the center’s comparison with its previous advisory, not with Tuesday morning.

The center was near latitude 19.8 north, longitude 107.9 west: about 150 miles (240 kilometers) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, and about 150 miles (245 kilometers) southwest of Las Islas Marias. Simon was moving southwest near 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 millibars. The forecast advisory lists the same winds as 90 knots.

The hurricane could move slowly and erratically during the next day or two. A turn toward the north or north-northwest is forecast by Friday. The discussion says Simon is likely to meander well offshore of west-central Mexico during that stretch, and that the models do not agree on when or where the turn comes. It says confidence is lower than normal. The forecast table marks the Sunday 0600 UTC position as post-tropical and inland. The discussion says further track changes are likely.

Simon is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 10 miles (20 kilometers) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 35 miles (55 kilometers).

A hurricane watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias. The advisory lists no other coastal watch or warning. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible, generally within 48 hours. Hurricane conditions are possible on the islands on Thursday. People in west-central Mexico and in Baja California Sur should keep monitoring. The center says more watches or warnings may be required over the next day or two.

Some intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days, the advisory says, followed by weakening on Friday and into the weekend. The discussion says the official forecast shows little net change in the next 24 to 36 hours, and a steady weakening after that.

Through Friday, Simon is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 3 inches, over parts of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. Swells will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next few days. The center says those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The U.S. center tells people in Mexico to follow products from their national meteorological service. This desk did not open those pages.

When this story was filed, the center’s refresh page for the public advisory had moved on to Intermediate Advisory 28A, at 5 a.m. Mountain time. Winds were still near 105 mph, and the only watch was still Las Islas Marias. The center was then about 160 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, moving west-southwest at 3 mph. The figures above are the 2 a.m. advisory.