Safety · Friday, October 9, 2026
Hurricane Isaias nears the northern Gulf Coast; forecasters expect it ashore this evening or tonight
Added 8:05 a.m. ET, Oct. 9
The File desk · Oct 9, 2026, 12:05 PM UTC
Status
Confirmed. Every figure comes from the National Hurricane Center's 7 a.m. Central (8 a.m. Eastern) intermediate advisory 11A and its 4 a.m. Central advisory and discussion 11, read on nhc.noaa.gov. Nothing has happened on land yet; this is a forecast.
- Confirmed
At 8 a.m. Eastern, Isaias had top winds near 110 mph, a central pressure of 958 millibars, and was about 245 miles south of Pensacola, Florida, moving north-northeast at 15 mph (advisory 11A).
- Confirmed
A hurricane warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf county line in Florida, and a storm surge warning from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River (advisory 11A).
- Confirmed
The center expects Isaias to become a major hurricane this morning and to remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall this evening or tonight (advisory 11A).
Hurricane Isaias is bearing down on the coast between southern Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle. The National Hurricane Center expects it to come ashore there this evening or tonight as a dangerous hurricane. At 8 a.m. Eastern its top winds were near 110 mph, just short of major-hurricane strength. Its center was about 245 miles south of Pensacola, moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Forecasters warn of life-threatening flooding from the sea along the coast, and of power outages that could last a long time.
A hurricane warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the line between Bay and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle. A storm surge warning, meaning the sea could flood land that is normally dry, runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida's Suwannee River.
The deepest water is forecast for the Florida Panhandle between the Santa Rosa–Okaloosa county line and Grayton Beach: 6 to 9 feet above ground if the peak surge arrives at high tide. From Dauphin Island, Alabama, to that county line, the forecast is 5 to 7 feet. Mobile Bay could see 3 to 5 feet.
Heavy rain will reach well inland. The center forecasts 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with up to 15 inches in spots. Much of the rest of the Southeast could get 2 to 5 inches. Flash flooding is likely, and some rivers could flood badly. Tornadoes are possible from late this afternoon along the Alabama and Panhandle coast, and on Saturday across Georgia and the Carolinas.
Hurricane-force winds reach up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds up to 185 miles. The center says people in the warning areas should finish preparing within the next few hours, and leave if local officials tell them to.
This story uses the 8 a.m. Eastern update. The next full advisory is due at 11 a.m. Eastern on hurricanes.gov.
What is still unknown or disputed
- Exactly where Isaias comes ashore, and how strong it is then. The latest advisory says it should still be a dangerous hurricane at landfall.
- Damage and power outages. The storm has not reached land.
Primary sources
Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.
Source 1
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 9, 2026
Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning and remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall this evening or tonight.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public_a.011.shtml
Source 2
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 11
National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 9, 2026
Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public.011.shtml
Source 3
Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 11
National Hurricane Center (NOAA) · October 9, 2026
Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.discus.011.shtml