Federal Reserve · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Waller says he expects more rate increases if the numbers hold
The File desk · Oct 8, 2026, 10:51 AM UTC
Status
Confirmed that he said it. The speech text, “The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections,” was posted Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, at 4:30 a.m. Eastern. The views in the speech are his own, as the footnote says.
- Confirmed
Governor Christopher J. Waller said that if the economic data continue to come in as expected, he anticipates additional rate increases.
- Confirmed
He said increases do not need to come at back-to-back meetings, but that they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.
Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller said Thursday that he expects to keep raising interest rates if the economy comes in as he expects. Speaking in Istanbul, he said last month's increase grew from months of evidence, not one hot inflation report. Oil prices stayed high, spending on artificial intelligence was pushing up prices, and new tariffs remained a threat. He said the latest data show the labor market is stable and inflation is too high. Increases do not need to come at back-to-back meetings, he said, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.
The posted title is “The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections.” The Fed's calendar had listed the talk as “Economic Outlook.” He spoke at the Istanbul Economic Forum, hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. The text was posted at 4:30 a.m. Eastern. A footnote says the views expressed are his own.
He said: “If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal.”
On the Fed's own projections, Waller said sixteen of the eighteen participants who submitted dots anticipated at least one more increase during the two remaining meetings this year. Four of those sixteen expected two additional increases. The dots are each official's projection for rates.
He also read the futures market. According to futures prices for the federal funds rate as of Wednesday, he said, traders saw an 85 percent chance of at least one increase by the end of the December meeting. That is his reading of those prices.
His worry is that inflation, after what soon will be five and a half years above the Fed's target, could push people to expect more of it. Questions from the audience are not in the posted text.
What is still unknown or disputed
- What he said in any question-and-answer period. It is not in the text.
- Whether other officials agree with him on timing.
Primary sources
Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.
Source 1
The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections
Federal Reserve, Governor Christopher J. Waller · October 8, 2026
If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm
Source 2
Fed speeches feed
Federal Reserve · October 8, 2026
Waller, The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections, Thu, 8 Oct 2026 08:30:00 GMT.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/speeches.xml