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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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Safety · Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Cyclone Arnab nears India's coast, with stronger winds now forecast at landfall

The File desk · Oct. 27, 2026, 7:35 a.m. ET

Confirmed7 primary sourcesUpdated 7:35 a.m. ET, Oct. 27

Status

Confirmed. The storm's position, the landfall forecast, the storm surge and the damage India expects are from the India Meteorological Department's National Bulletin No. 18, issued at 5 a.m. ET Tuesday. The American forecast is from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Warning 6, also issued at 5 a.m. ET. The red alert is from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Evacuation figures, flooding in coastal villages and train cancellations are Partially confirmed: they come from news reports quoting officials, not from government pages this desk read.
  • Confirmed
    At 2 a.m. ET Tuesday, Arnab was a very severe cyclonic storm about 170 km (about 105 miles) south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 180 km (about 110 miles) east-southeast of Kakinada, moving toward the coast (IMD National Bulletin No. 18).
  • Confirmed
    India's weather department now expects Arnab to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast close to Yanam, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, by the forenoon of Oct. 28, India time, with sustained winds of 125 to 135 km/h (about 78 to 84 mph), gusting to 150 km/h (about 93 mph). Monday's forecast was 115 to 125 km/h, gusting to 140 (IMD National Bulletins No. 18 and No. 8).
  • Confirmed
    The same bulletin raises the storm surge warning to 1 to 2 meters (about 3 to 6.5 feet) above the tide in low-lying Andhra Pradesh, highest near Kakinada and Yanam. Monday's bulletin said 1 to 1.5 meters.
  • Confirmed
    The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Arnab's winds at about 130 mph at 2 a.m. ET Tuesday, says it may strengthen further before landfall, and says it may stall or slow near the Godavari River delta. It uses a different wind measure from India's (one-minute averages, not three).
  • Confirmed
    The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System keeps Arnab at red, its highest level, and estimates 7.4 million people in the path of winds of at least 120 km/h (GDACS).
  • Partially confirmed
    Andhra Pradesh had moved nearly 50,000 people to shelters by Monday night out of about 400,000 who need to move, the state disaster agency's managing director told Reuters; Odisha planned to move at least 48,000 people by Tuesday evening (CNA, citing Reuters; The Hindu, citing PTI).
  • Partially confirmed
    Seawater has already flooded parts of Uppada and nearby fishing villages near Kakinada, and dozens of trains have been cancelled (The Hindu).
On the Kakinada coast, the sea arrived before the storm. On Tuesday, rising waves pushed into the fishing villages of Uppada, Konapapet and Moolapet and cut the roads to Kakinada, The Hindu reported.5 Cyclone Arnab itself was still out over the Bay of Bengal, about 110 miles offshore, and India's weather department now expects it to come ashore near Yanam by Wednesday morning India time, which is late Tuesday night Eastern, with stronger winds than it forecast on Monday.1
India's Tuesday bulletin puts the winds at landfall at about 78 to 84 mph, gusting to 93 mph, up from Monday's forecast. It warns that seawater could rise 1 to 2 meters, about 3 to 6.5 feet, above the tide over low-lying land, highest near Kakinada and Yanam, and that the open sea is "phenomenal," with waves of 14 meters or more. Out at sea on Tuesday, the storm's winds were about 93 to 99 mph, and India expects them to ease a little before the center reaches land.1
The American forecast is sharper again. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center put the winds at about 130 mph early Tuesday, described a small, clear "pinhole" eye, and said the storm may strengthen further before landfall over very warm coastal water. It also said Arnab may slow down or even stall near the Godavari River delta, pulled by a second weather system to its southeast, and that the wet delta may slow its weakening once it is ashore.23 The two agencies measure wind differently, so their numbers do not line up exactly. India's weather department is the official forecaster for this coast.
On land, India's bulletin expects total destruction of thatched houses, extensive damage to mud houses, power and phone poles brought down, flooded escape routes and major disruption to railways in coastal Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday. It calls for evacuation of coastal areas and a total halt to fishing. Extremely heavy rain is forecast in Andhra Pradesh, south Odisha and southern Chhattisgarh, with heavy rain moving north into Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh through Saturday as the storm weakens inland.1 A United Nations and European Commission alert system keeps the storm at red, its highest level, and estimates that about 7.4 million people are in the path of damaging winds.4
The states are emptying the shoreline. Andhra Pradesh had moved nearly 50,000 people to shelters by Monday night, out of about 400,000 it estimates need to move, Prakhar Jain, managing director of the state disaster management authority, told Reuters; "Evacuation is continuing," he said.6 About 89,000 people on the Kakinada coast are being moved to 101 relief camps, and Odisha planned to move at least 48,000 people by Tuesday evening, The Hindu reported, citing state officials. The railways have cancelled dozens of trains, all of Visakhapatnam's beaches are closed, and Nepal, far to the north, has put the country on high alert for the storm's remnants from Thursday to Saturday.56
Why it matters (Estimate). The danger here is mostly water. The landfall zone is the crowded, low-lying delta where the Godavari River meets the sea, and India has raised its surge warning to as much as 6.5 feet of seawater over that land. If the storm slows near the coast, as the American forecast says it may, the rain will fall on the same places for longer. Whether people are out of the low ground before Wednesday morning, India time, is what decides how this ends, and the latest count shows most of the people Andhra Pradesh wants to move had not yet moved on Monday night. This is our reading of the official forecasts, not the agencies' words.
Andhra Pradesh hospitals have stocked 21,536 doses of anti-snake venom ahead of the storm, the state disaster agency said, along with 8,281 emergency beds and 1,274 ambulances.5
How we know

Notes

  1. 1.India Meteorological Department, National Bulletin No. 18 (BOB/08/2026), issued 2:30 p.m. India time Oct. 27 (5 a.m. ET), based on the storm's position at 11:30 a.m. India time (2 a.m. ET). Position, forecast table, wind, sea, surge, rain and impact sections. km/h converted to mph and rounded. Monday's figures are from National Bulletin No. 8 (Source 7). Source 1.
  2. 2.U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Tropical Cyclone 02B (Arnab) Warning 6, issued 0900 UTC Oct. 27 (5 a.m. ET): 115 knots at 0600 UTC, forecast 120 knots at 1800 UTC Oct. 27, 100 knots at 0600 UTC Oct. 28, 65 knots at 1800 UTC Oct. 28. Knots converted to mph and rounded. Source 2.
  3. 3.JTWC prognostic reasoning for Warning 6: "rapidly intensifying," pinhole eye, possible peak of 120 to 130 knots before landfall, slowing from interaction with a second system (Invest 90B), possible stall near the Godavari delta in some models, landfall over the river delta. JTWC rates its intensity forecast medium-confidence and its track forecast high-confidence. Source 3.
  4. 4.GDACS red alert notification for Tropical Cyclone ARNAB-26, retrieved Tuesday morning ET: "Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 7.447 million." Source 4.
  5. 5.The Hindu live updates, Oct. 27, citing the IMD, state officials, PTI and ANI: seawater flooding at Uppada, Konapapet and Moolapet; 89,000 people on the Kakinada coast moving to 101 relief camps; Odisha's plan to move 48,000 people (Special Relief Commissioner Rajesh P. Patil, to PTI); train cancellations; Visakhapatnam beaches closed; Nepal's alert; anti-snake venom stock (APSDMA, to PTI). Not an official page; Partially confirmed. Source 5.
  6. 6.CNA, Oct. 27, citing Reuters and Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority. Not an official page; Partially confirmed. Source 6.

What is still unknown or disputed

  • Exactly where and when the center will cross the coast. India's forecast names a stretch of coast, not a point, and the American forecast says the storm may slow or stall near the delta.
  • How strong it will be at landfall. The two forecasts still differ.
  • How many people have actually reached shelter. The latest count this desk found is from Monday night.

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    National Bulletin No. 18 (BOB/08/2026): Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab, red message for Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha

    India Meteorological Department · October 27, 2026

    cross Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph by forenoon of 28th October, 2026.

    https://mausam.imd.gov.in/backend/assets/cyclone_pdf/18__National_Bulletin_No_18-27Oct2026_1130IST.pdf

  2. Source 2

    Tropical Cyclone 02B (Arnab) Warning Nr 006

    U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center · October 27, 2026

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0226web.txt

  3. Source 3

    Prognostic reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 02B (Arnab) Warning Nr 006

    U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center · October 27, 2026

    OWING TO WARM SHELF WATERS, TC 02B MAY REACH A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 120 AND 130 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0226prog.txt

  4. Source 4

    Red notification for tropical cyclone ARNAB-26

    Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System · October 27, 2026

    Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 7.447 million.

    http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=1001345

  5. Source 5

    Cyclone 'Arnab' LIVE updates: Storm 170 km from Visakhapatnam; landfall near Yanam; Nepal on high alert

    The Hindu · October 27, 2026

    Rising sea waves have flooded coastal stretches of Uppada, Konapapet and Moolapet in Kakinada district on Tuesday, disrupting traffic on the roads that connect Uppada and nearby villages to Kakinada.

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/cyclone-arnab-andhra-pradesh-odisha-rainfall-weather-imd-alert-live-updates-october-27-2026/article71629599.ece

  6. Source 6

    Thousands evacuate India's eastern coast ahead of Cyclone Arnab

    CNA (Reuters) · October 27, 2026

    Nearly 50,000 people had been moved to shelters from vulnerable areas by Monday night, out of 400,000 estimated to need evacuation, Prakhar Jain, Managing Director of Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, told Reuters.

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/india-thousands-evacuated-cyclone-arnab-6495481

  7. Source 7

    National Bulletin No. 8 (BOB/08/2026): Cyclonic Storm Arnab, red message for Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha

    India Meteorological Department · October 26, 2026

    very likely to ... cross Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam close to Yanam as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph by forenoon of 28th October, 2026.

    https://mausam.imd.gov.in/backend/assets/cyclone_pdf/8__National_Bulletin_No_8-26Oct2026_0530IST1.pdf