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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

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Safety · Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Champi starts to weaken as Taiwan readies its first typhoon warnings

The File desk · Oct. 21, 2026, 7:36 a.m. ET

Confirmed5 primary sourcesAdded 7:36 a.m. ET, Oct. 21

Status

Confirmed. Champi's position, strength and forecast are the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Warning No. 28, issued at 5 a.m. ET Wednesday, and the forecast reasoning issued with it. Japan's track is the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued at 5:45 a.m. ET Wednesday. Taiwan's warning timeline is Partially confirmed: it comes from Taiwan's Central News Agency quoting a Central Weather Administration forecaster, because this desk could not read the agency's own forecast text. Miles and mph are this desk's conversions.
  • Confirmed
    At 2 a.m. ET Wednesday, Super Typhoon Champi was about 545 miles south of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, moving west-northwest at about 15 mph. The U.S. center lowered its estimate of the storm's top sustained winds to about 175 mph (150 knots) (Warning No. 28).
  • Confirmed
    The U.S. center expects steady to rapid weakening over cooler water, to about 120 mph by 2 a.m. ET Friday, when it forecasts the center east of Taiwan and south of Japan's westernmost islands, and to about 80 mph by early Saturday in the East China Sea.
  • Confirmed
    The computer models still split. Physics-based models take Champi into central or northern Taiwan; artificial-intelligence models turn it north toward Japan's Kyushu island. The U.S. center's track sits near the AI models, and it rates its confidence in both track and strength as low.
  • Confirmed
    Japan's weather agency forecasts the center about 75 miles south of Yonaguni, Japan's westernmost inhabited island, on Friday afternoon Japan time, and in the East China Sea on Saturday.
  • Partially confirmed
    Taiwan's Central Weather Administration could issue a sea warning late Wednesday night or early Thursday, Taiwan time, and a land warning Thursday afternoon. It expects Champi's greatest effect on Taiwan on Friday and Saturday, with the storm moving away toward Kyushu on Saturday (Central News Agency, quoting forecaster Chang Cheng-chuan).
Taiwan's fisheries agency spent Wednesday telling boat crews to head for port, as Super Typhoon Champi closed in on the waters east of the island.4 The storm is starting to weaken. At 2 a.m. ET the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center put its top winds near 175 mph, down from its earlier estimate, and expects them to fall fast over cooler water.1 Taiwan's forecasters say the island will feel Champi most on Friday and Saturday.3
Champi's eye was still clear and about 35 miles wide early Wednesday, but the storm has moved over cooler water with less stored heat, which cannot keep it at super typhoon strength, the U.S. center said. It expects winds near 120 mph by early Friday ET and near 80 mph by early Saturday.1
The track is still the hard part. The U.S. center's forecast takes Champi east of Taiwan on Friday, then north into the East China Sea and toward Kyushu, Japan's southern main island, by Sunday. The traditional physics-based models instead take it into central or northern Taiwan, and the center says a westward drift in the guidance could push its own track farther west.16
Japan's weather agency is close to the U.S. forecast. It places the center about 75 miles south of Yonaguni, the island nearest Taiwan, on Friday afternoon Japan time, then in the East China Sea on Saturday.2
In Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration said a sea warning could come late Wednesday night or early Thursday, Taiwan time, and a land warning Thursday afternoon, the Central News Agency reported. The forecaster said the warnings could be lifted as early as Saturday afternoon.3
The fisheries agency told boats off Taiwan's east, northeast, north and northwest coasts to be on alert and get to port, and asked fish farmers to tie down nets and check their backup generators.4
Why it matters (Estimate). A weakening typhoon is still a big one. Champi's gale-force winds reach as far as about 300 miles from its center, so Taiwan's north and east and Japan's southernmost islands can get damaging wind and heavy rain even if the eye stays at sea. Forecasters now agree it will be much weaker by the time it reaches anyone, but they still disagree on whether it hits Taiwan or curves away, and the next day of forecasts should settle that.
Out at sea, the U.S. center estimated the tallest waves near the storm at 65 feet.1
How we know

Notes

  1. 1.Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy and Air Force, Pearl Harbor), Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning No. 028, issued 0900 UTC Oct. 21, 2026 (5 a.m. ET; warning position at 0600 UTC, 2 a.m. ET): https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt ; prognostic reasoning for Warning No. 028: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926prog.txt (both pages are replaced with each new warning). The 120 mph figure is the 48-hour forecast (105 knots, valid 2 a.m. ET Friday, at 23.9N 123.4E); the 80 mph figure is the 72-hour forecast (70 knots, valid 2 a.m. ET Saturday, at 28.1N 123.6E). Gale-force winds (34 knots) extend up to 270 nautical miles (about 310 miles) from the center in the northeast quadrant. Minimum central pressure 904 millibars.
  2. 2.Japan Meteorological Agency, typhoon information for Typhoon No. 30 (Champi), issued 6:45 p.m. JST Oct. 21, 2026 (5:45 a.m. ET): https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en (data file: https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/typhoon/data/TC2636/specifications.json). The agency places the forecast center "about 120 km south of Yonaguni Island" at 3 p.m. JST Friday, Oct. 23, and in the "East China Sea" at 3 p.m. JST Saturday, Oct. 24 (location names translated from Japanese by this desk). It rates the storm's current intensity "violent," its highest class, with central pressure 900 hectopascals, and forecasts it to become an extratropical low near Tsushima by Monday.
  3. 3.Focus Taiwan (Central News Agency), "Sea warning for Typhoon Champi possible overnight: CWA," Oct. 21, 2026: https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202610210017 . The article reports that at 2 p.m. Taiwan time (2 a.m. ET) Champi was about 910 km (565 miles) east-southeast of Eluanbi, Taiwan's southern tip, with top sustained winds of 209 km/h. The Central Weather Administration's own typhoon page (https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_NEWS.html) did not show readable forecast text to this desk, so this part is Partially confirmed.
  4. 4.Fisheries Agency (Taiwan), notice distributed through the Central News Agency's press-release service, Oct. 21, 2026, translated from Chinese by this desk: https://www.cna.com.tw/postwrite/chi/447668
  5. 5.Caveats. Miles and mph are this desk's conversions (1 knot is about 1.15 mph; 1 nautical mile is about 1.15 miles). The U.S. center measures winds as one-minute averages; Japan's and Taiwan's agencies use ten-minute averages, which give lower numbers for the same storm (Japan: 115 knots; Taiwan: 60 meters per second, about 135 mph). The Philippine weather agency's current bulletin did not load for this desk (its advisory file still showed Tuesday's Bulletin No. 1), so this story does not report Philippine wind signals.
  6. 6.The U.S. center also says that if the westward trend continues, Champi would spend longer over cooler water and could weaken to minimal tropical-storm strength before it nears mainland Japan.

What is still unknown or disputed

  • Whether Champi makes landfall in Taiwan. Most physics-based models still say yes; the AI models and the U.S. and Japanese forecasts keep the center offshore.
  • How strong Champi got at its peak. This desk did not see the U.S. center's warnings between Tuesday's No. 24 and Wednesday's No. 28.

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning Nr 028

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force) · October 21, 2026

    SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 028 ... 210600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 128.9E ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT ... 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.9N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT ... SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS ... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 65 FEET.

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt

  2. Source 2

    Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning Nr 028

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force) · October 21, 2026

    THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ... WHICH IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. ... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 150 KTS ... PHYSICS-BASED MODELS STILL SHOWING A LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TAIWAN AND AI MODELS RECURVING THE SYSTEM INTO OR JUST NORTH OF KYUSHU. ... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW ... INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926prog.txt

  3. Source 3

    Typhoon information, Typhoon No. 30 (Champi)

    Japan Meteorological Agency · October 21, 2026

    Forecast for 45 hours ahead (3 p.m. JST Oct. 23): about 120 km south of Yonaguni Island ... Forecast for 69 hours ahead (3 p.m. JST Oct. 24): East China Sea.

    https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en

  4. Source 4

    Sea warning for Typhoon Champi possible overnight: CWA

    Focus Taiwan (Central News Agency) · October 21, 2026

    A sea warning for Typhoon Champi could be issued late Wednesday night or early Thursday as the storm's projected path shifts slightly westward, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said Wednesday. ... A land warning could be issued Thursday afternoon, Chang said, adding that the typhoon is expected to have its greatest impact on Taiwan on Friday and Saturday

    https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202610210017

  5. Source 5

    Fisheries Agency urges typhoon preparations as Champi approaches

    Fisheries Agency, Taiwan (via CNA press-release service) · October 21, 2026

    Fishing vessels sailing and operating in the waters off Taiwan's east, northeast, north and northwest should raise their alert, keep listening to typhoon broadcasts, and enter port to shelter as soon as possible or leave the typhoon's possible path.

    https://www.cna.com.tw/postwrite/chi/447668

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