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Monday, October 19, 2026

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Safety · Monday, October 19, 2026

Champi strengthens west of Guam with Taiwan in the forecast

Added 7:46 a.m. ET, Oct. 19

The File desk · Oct. 19, 2026, 7:46 a.m. ET

Status

Confirmed. The position, strength, forecast track and forecast peak are the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Warning No. 20 on Super Typhoon Champi, issued at 5 a.m. ET Monday, and the center's forecast reasoning issued with it. Miles and miles per hour are this desk's conversions from the center's nautical miles and knots. The long-range track is a forecast that the center itself rates low confidence.
  • Confirmed
    At 2 a.m. ET Monday, Champi was about 333 miles north of the island of Yap, with top sustained winds near 160 mph (140 knots), moving west-northwest (Warning No. 20).
  • Confirmed
    The center forecasts a peak near 175 mph (150 knots) by early Tuesday ET, then gradual weakening.
  • Confirmed
    The forecast track passes northeast of northern Taiwan by early Saturday ET. The center rates its confidence in the track beyond three days as low, and names a second scenario: a landfall on Taiwan's east coast after about four days.
Super Typhoon Champi, which brushed past Guam this weekend, has grown stronger over open ocean. At 2 a.m. ET Monday it was about 333 miles north of the island of Yap, with top winds near 160 mph, the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center said.1 The center expects it to strengthen a little more, then head toward the waters around Taiwan late this week, and it says that long-range track is uncertain.
That is a turn from Sunday, when the National Weather Service on Guam expected the storm to weaken through Monday.2
The storm has a sharp, round eye, and it is moving over some of the warmest, deepest ocean water in the region, the center said. It forecasts a peak near 175 mph by early Tuesday ET. After that, Champi should slow down and weaken gradually, partly because a slow storm churns up cooler water from below.13
Where it goes after Wednesday is the hard part. The center's forecast takes Champi northwest, passing northeast of northern Taiwan by early Saturday ET, and it also names a second possibility: a straighter path that would bring the storm ashore on Taiwan's east coast after about four days. Computer models disagree widely that far out, and the center rates its confidence in the track beyond three days as low.1
Guam is behind it. The weather service there had no watches or warnings left for the Marianas by Sunday evening, Guam time.2
Why it matters (Estimate). Champi is now stronger than when it passed Guam, and it is moving toward Taiwan and the islands around it, where millions of people live. The next few days of forecasts will show whether this becomes a near miss or a direct hit. Nothing is settled yet, because the forecasters themselves say the track four and five days out is low confidence.
Out at sea, the center estimated the tallest waves near the storm at 53 feet.1

Notes

  1. 1.Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy and Air Force, Pearl Harbor), Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning No. 020, issued 0900 UTC Oct. 19, 2026 (warning position at 0600 UTC, 2 a.m. ET): https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt ; prognostic reasoning for Warning No. 020: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926prog.txt (both pages are replaced with each new warning).
  2. 2.National Weather Service Tiyan, Guam, Super Typhoon Champi (29W) Advisory Number 16, 7:52 p.m. ChST Sun Oct 18, 2026 (as cited in Sunday's story): https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=0&issuedby=PQ2&product=TCP&site=GUM&version=1
  3. 3.Caveats. Miles per hour and statute miles are this desk's conversions (1 knot is about 1.15 mph). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center measures winds as one-minute averages; some agencies in Asia, such as Japan's weather agency, use ten-minute averages, which give lower numbers for the same storm. The center says the storm is likely to go through eyewall replacement cycles, which can cause large swings in strength above and below its forecast.

What is still unknown or disputed

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning Nr 020

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force) · October 19, 2026

    SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 020 ... 190600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 138.4E ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT ... 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.5N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT ... SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 53 FEET.

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt

  2. Source 2

    Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning Nr 020

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force) · October 19, 2026

    A SYMMETRICAL, 25NM WIDE EYE ... THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A POOL OF OCEANIC WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST OHC (150 KJ PER CM2) IN THE ENTIRE BASIN. ... BY TAU 96, 29W WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, PASSING NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN TAIWAN ... AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO SEES ... THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 120, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN AFTER TAU 96. ... AFTER TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS, IT WILL BE IMPACTED BY SELF-INDUCED OCEANIC UPWELLING ... TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW.

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926prog.txt

  3. Source 3

    Super Typhoon Champi (29W) Advisory Number 16

    National Weather Service Tiyan, Guam (NOAA) · October 18, 2026

    By Sunday evening the storm was moving away to the west, and the National Weather Service had no watches or warnings left for the Marianas. At 7 p.m. Sunday Guam time the storm was about 200 miles west of Guam and about 365 miles northeast of Yap, still with winds near 150 mph. The weather service expects it to weaken through Monday but stay a major typhoon.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=0&issuedby=PQ2&product=TCP&site=GUM&version=1