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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

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Safety · Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Champi nears peak strength on a path toward Taiwan and Japan's southern islands

The File desk · Oct. 20, 2026, 7:49 a.m. ET

Confirmed5 primary sourcesAdded 7:49 a.m. ET, Oct. 20

Status

Confirmed. Champi's position, strength and forecast are the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Warning No. 24, issued at 5 a.m. ET Tuesday, and the forecast reasoning issued with it. The Philippine wind signals are the Philippine weather agency PAGASA's Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 1. Japan's track is the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued at 5:45 a.m. ET Tuesday. Taiwan's warning timeline is Partially confirmed: it comes from Taiwan's Central News Agency quoting a Central Weather Administration forecaster, because this desk could not read the agency's own page. Miles and mph are this desk's conversions.
  • Confirmed
    At 2 a.m. ET Tuesday, Super Typhoon Champi was about 810 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, with top sustained winds near 155 mph (135 knots), moving west-northwest (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Warning No. 24).
  • Confirmed
    The center raised its forecast peak to about 185 mph (160 knots), which it says may be reached within hours, followed by steady weakening (forecast reasoning, Warning No. 24).
  • Confirmed
    The U.S. center's forecast turns Champi north near Japan's Yaeyama Islands, south of Okinawa, around Friday. Japan's weather agency forecasts the center south of Okinawa on Friday and in the East China Sea by Saturday. The U.S. center rates its confidence in the track as low.
  • Confirmed
    The Philippines named the storm Rosal and raised Wind Signal No. 1, its lowest level, for Batanes and parts of northern Luzon and Catanduanes. Its forecast keeps the center at sea (PAGASA Bulletin No. 1, 11 a.m. Philippine time Tuesday).
  • Partially confirmed
    Taiwan's Central Weather Administration could issue a sea warning late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, Taiwan time, and a land warning Thursday night. Heavy or extremely heavy rain is possible Friday and Saturday in the north and in Yilan and Hualien (Central News Agency, quoting forecaster Chao Hung).
The Philippines raised its first storm signal on Tuesday for Batanes, its northernmost islands, as Super Typhoon Champi churned toward the waters between Taiwan and Japan.3 At 2 a.m. ET the storm's top winds were near 155 mph, and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects it to grow stronger within hours.1 Forecasters expect it to turn north late this week, near Japan's southernmost islands and northeastern Taiwan. Exactly where that turn happens is still uncertain.
The U.S. center raised its forecast peak to about 185 mph. Champi has just finished rebuilding its eyewall, and it sits over very warm, deep ocean water with almost no crosswinds to hold it back, the center said. After the peak, it expects steady weakening as the big storm stirs up cooler water from below and later runs into drier air.1
The track is the hard part. The U.S. center's forecast turns Champi north near Japan's Yaeyama Islands, the group that includes Ishigaki, around Friday.1 Japan's weather agency forecasts the center south of Okinawa on Friday and in the East China Sea by Saturday.2 The U.S. center says most of the traditional computer models instead take the storm into Taiwan, and it rates its confidence in the track as low.15
In the Philippines, the weather agency PAGASA named the storm Rosal. Its forecast keeps the center at sea, east of the Batanes Islands, but it says the signal there could rise to No. 2 or 3. It warned that the seas off eastern Luzon are risky for small boats.3
Taiwan expects to feel Champi most on Friday and Saturday, a Central Weather Administration forecaster told the island's Central News Agency. A sea warning could come as early as late Wednesday night, Taiwan time, with heavy or extremely heavy rain possible in the north and in Yilan and Hualien counties.4
Why it matters (Estimate). Champi will weaken before it reaches land, but a weaker typhoon is still dangerous, and its strong winds reach hundreds of miles from the eye. Forecasters agree that Japan's southernmost islands and Taiwan's north and east are in line for its wind and rain on Friday and Saturday. They do not yet agree on which place takes the worst of it, and the next two days of forecasts should settle that.
Out at sea, the U.S. center estimated the tallest waves near the storm at 55 feet.1
How we know

Notes

  1. 1.Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy and Air Force, Pearl Harbor), Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning No. 024, issued 0900 UTC Oct. 20, 2026 (5 a.m. ET; warning position at 0600 UTC, 2 a.m. ET): https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt ; prognostic reasoning for Warning No. 024: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926prog.txt (both pages are replaced with each new warning). The 105 mph figure is the 72-hour forecast (90 knots, valid 2 a.m. ET Friday).
  2. 2.Japan Meteorological Agency, typhoon information for Typhoon No. 30 (Champi), issued 6:45 p.m. JST Oct. 20, 2026 (5:45 a.m. ET): https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en (data file: https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/typhoon/data/TC2636/specifications.json). The agency places the forecast center "south of Okinawa" at 3 p.m. JST Friday, Oct. 23, and in the "East China Sea" at 3 p.m. JST Saturday, Oct. 24 (location names translated from Japanese by this desk). It rates the storm's current intensity "violent," its highest class.
  3. 3.PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Nr. 1, Super Typhoon Rosal (Champi), issued 11 a.m. Philippine time Oct. 20, 2026 (11 p.m. ET Oct. 19): https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tcadvisory.pdf (replaced with each new bulletin). Wind Signal No. 1 covers Batanes, the eastern Babuyan Islands, eastern mainland Cagayan, northeastern Isabela and northeastern Catanduanes. The bulletin says strong to typhoon-force winds extend up to 720 km (about 450 miles) from the center.
  4. 4.Focus Taiwan (Central News Agency), "Typhoon Champi's effect on Taiwan to be strongest Friday, Saturday: CWA," Oct. 20, 2026: https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202610200007 . The Central Weather Administration's own typhoon page (https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_NEWS.html) did not show readable forecast text to this desk, so this part is Partially confirmed.
  5. 5.Caveats. Miles and mph are this desk's conversions (1 knot is about 1.15 mph; 1 nautical mile is about 1.15 miles). The U.S. center measures winds as one-minute averages; Japan's and the Philippines' agencies use ten-minute averages, which give lower numbers for the same storm (Japan: 105 knots; PAGASA: 185 km/h). The U.S. center says its track favors artificial-intelligence weather models that turn the storm north, and that two of them turn it faster, toward southwestern Kyushu by Sunday; it says a peak above 160 knots is possible but hard to forecast.

What is still unknown or disputed

  • Where Champi turns north. The U.S. and Japanese forecasts differ, and most traditional computer models still take it into Taiwan.
  • How strong it will be by Friday. The U.S. center expects steady weakening after today's peak, to near 105 mph by early Friday ET.

Primary sources

Every claim in this story is drawn from the documents below. If a fetch failed, that is recorded on the card.

  1. Source 1

    Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning Nr 024

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force) · October 20, 2026

    SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 024 ... 200600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 134.4E ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT ... 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT ... SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 704 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS ... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 55 FEET.

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt

  2. Source 2

    Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 29W (Champi) Warning Nr 024

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force) · October 20, 2026

    STY 29W HAS QUICKLY RECOVERED FOLLOWING COMPLETION OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ... THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL, CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ... SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 160 KTS. ... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 150-160 KTS MAY BE ACHIEVED WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. ... THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO TAIWAN, WHILE THE AI SOLUTIONS SHOW A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. ... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW

    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926prog.txt

  3. Source 3

    Typhoon information, Typhoon No. 30 (Champi)

    Japan Meteorological Agency · October 20, 2026

    Analysis 18:00 JST Oct. 20: 16.7N 133.8E, central pressure 935 hPa, maximum sustained winds 105 kt, intensity "猛烈な" (violent). Forecast 69 hours ahead (15:00 JST Oct. 23): 23.2N 123.8E, "沖縄の南" (south of Okinawa). Forecast 93 hours ahead (15:00 JST Oct. 24): 26.2N 122.3E, "東シナ海" (East China Sea).

    https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en

  4. Source 4

    Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Nr. 1, Super Typhoon ROSAL (CHAMPI)

    PAGASA (Philippines) · October 20, 2026

    SUPER TYPHOON CHAMPI OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS GIVEN THE LOCAL NAME 'ROSAL' AS WIND SIGNAL NO. 1 IS NOW HOISTED OVER SEVERAL AREAS IN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LUZON. ... The highest Wind Signal that may be raised during the passage of ROSAL is Wind Signal No. 2 or 3.

    https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tcadvisory.pdf

  5. Source 5

    Typhoon Champi's effect on Taiwan to be strongest Friday, Saturday: CWA

    Focus Taiwan (Central News Agency) · October 20, 2026

    Based on the typhoon's current projected path, the CWA could issue a sea warning late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, CWA forecaster Chao Hung said, adding that a land warning could also be issued Thursday night. ... Rain is expected across Taiwan from Friday to Saturday, with heavy or extremely heavy rain possible in the north, as well as Yilan and Hualien counties in the east.

    https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202610200007

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